Risk insights library
Risk Insights: Climate, Insurance, AI and Banking Risk
Forty practitioner articles on climate risk, insurance and actuarial modelling, AI model risk, and banking and market risk regulation for boards and risk teams. Written by Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman.
Climate Risk
Physical vs Transition Risk in Credit Portfolios
How banks separate physical and transition climate risk drivers in credit portfolios, and why conflating them weakens provisioning and capital decisions.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
Flood Risk in Mortgage Lending and Underwriting
Flood hazard data is reshaping mortgage underwriting and collateral valuation; lenders must integrate flood maps without mispricing or excluding whole regions.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
EIOPA Climate Stress Testing for Insurers
EIOPA's climate stress testing framework for insurers tests solvency and liquidity under physical and transition scenarios; here is what it demands in practice.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 9 min read
Nature-Related and Biodiversity Financial Risk
Biodiversity loss is emerging as a distinct financial risk alongside climate change, with frameworks like TNFD shaping how institutions should assess exposure.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
Wildfire Underwriting in Property Insurance
Wildfire losses are outpacing historical models; property insurers are rebuilding underwriting around granular hazard data and dynamic risk zoning.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
Heat Stress, Mortality and Health Financial Risk
Rising extreme heat is a quantifiable mortality and morbidity driver for life and health insurers, requiring updated actuarial assumptions and pricing.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 7 min read
Carbon Pricing Pass-Through and Corporate Credit Risk
How carbon pricing costs pass through to corporate margins varies by sector pricing power, directly shaping transition risk in corporate credit analysis.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
Climate Risk in Real Estate Valuation
Climate hazards are starting to show up as measurable discounts in real estate valuation, challenging appraisal methods that rely on recent comparable sales.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
Closing the Climate Insurance Protection Gap
The widening gap between insured and economic losses from climate disasters threatens financial resilience; here is how insurers and regulators are responding.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
Climate Data Quality and Disclosure Under ISSB, CSRD
ISSB and CSRD are raising the bar on climate disclosure quality; financial institutions need robust data governance to meet assurance-ready standards.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 9 min read
Insurance & Actuarial
Solvency II 2025 Review: What Changes for Insurers
A practitioner guide to the Solvency II 2025 review: volatility adjustment, risk margin, proportionality and reporting changes insurers must plan for.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
ORSA Best Practice: Building a Supervisor-Ready Process
Practical guidance on ORSA best practice: forward-looking scenarios, capital planning integration and governance supervisors expect from insurers.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
Life Insurance Lapse Risk: Drivers and Mitigation
How life insurers model, monitor and mitigate lapse risk, from policyholder behaviour drivers to Solvency II capital and reinsurance responses.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 7 min read
Longevity Risk Transfer: Pensions and Insurer Strategies
An overview of longevity risk transfer markets: buy-ins, buy-outs, longevity swaps and reinsurance, and how insurers price and manage the exposure.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
Catastrophe Bonds and ILS: A Guide for Insurers
How catastrophe bonds and insurance-linked securities help insurers transfer peak peril risk, with pricing, trigger design and market trends explained.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
Reinsurance Programme Optimisation: A Practical Framework
A framework for optimising reinsurance programme structure, balancing capital relief, cost efficiency and counterparty risk across retention and layers.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 7 min read
Cyber Insurance Accumulation Risk: Managing the Tail
Why cyber insurance accumulation risk challenges traditional reinsurance models, and how insurers quantify and manage systemic cyber loss scenarios.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
IFRS 17 CSM Release: Mechanics and Judgement Areas
A clear explanation of IFRS 17 contractual service margin release mechanics, coverage units judgement, and common implementation pitfalls for insurers.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 9 min read
Economic Scenario Generators: Role in Insurance Risk
How insurers use economic scenario generators for capital modelling, ALM and ORSA, and the key validation challenges actuaries must address.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
Mortality Improvement Trends in the Post-Pandemic Era
What post-pandemic mortality data reveals about long-term improvement trends, and how insurers should adjust life and annuity pricing assumptions.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 7 min read
AI in Risk
EU AI Act: High-Risk Rules for Banks & Insurers
How the EU AI Act classifies credit scoring and insurance pricing models as high-risk, and what banks and insurers must do to comply.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
Validating Large Language Models in Finance
A practical validation approach for large language models in financial services, covering hallucination risk, testing, and ongoing monitoring.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
Explainable AI (XAI) for Credit Risk Models
Why explainability matters for AI-driven credit decisions, how SHAP and LIME work, and how they meet regulatory adverse-action requirements.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 7 min read
AI Bias and Fairness in Insurance Underwriting
How bias enters AI underwriting models through proxy variables and data, and the testing frameworks insurers use to manage fairness risk.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
Model Risk Management for AI: SR 11-7 & SS1/23
How SR 11-7 and the PRA's SS1/23 extend to AI and machine-learning models, and what firms must add to existing validation frameworks.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
AI in Fraud Detection: Risk and Governance
How AI improves fraud detection in financial services, the false-positive trade-off, and the governance controls supervisors expect.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 7 min read
Generative AI in Risk Reporting: Benefits & Limits
How generative AI can accelerate risk reporting and narrative drafting, and the governance controls needed to manage accuracy risk.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 7 min read
AI Governance Frameworks for Boards: A Risk View
What boards need from an AI governance framework: oversight structure, risk appetite, accountability, and reporting on AI risk exposure.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
Synthetic Data for Risk Modelling: Uses & Limits
How synthetic data supports risk model development and privacy compliance, and the validation steps needed before models trust it.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 7 min read
AI Agents and Operational Risk in Financial Firms
The new operational risk exposures created by autonomous AI agents taking actions in financial systems, and how to govern them.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
Banking & Market Risk
Basel III Endgame: Navigating the CRR3 Output Floor
How the CRR3 output floor reshapes capital planning for EU banks, why internal models lose ground, and what treasury teams must do now.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
FRTB Implementation: Lessons for Trading Desk Risk
What banks are learning as FRTB internal model and standardised approach deadlines approach, and how desks are restructuring to pass tests.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
IFRS 9 ECL Overlays: Discipline Beyond the Model
Why post-model overlays remain essential under IFRS 9, how auditors and supervisors scrutinise them, and how to govern them without abuse.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
IRRBB Supervisory Outlier Test: What Banks Must Prove
How the IRRBB supervisory outlier test works, why rising rates exposed banking-book gaps, and what breaching the threshold means in practice.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 7 min read
LCR/NSFR Lessons from the 2023 Banking Crisis
What the 2023 bank failures revealed about the limits of LCR and NSFR, and how liquidity risk frameworks have adapted since.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
SA-CCR: Counterparty Credit Risk Capital in Practice
How the standardised approach for counterparty credit risk changes derivatives capital, and where banks still find SA-CCR punitive or mismeasured.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 7 min read
EBA Credit Risk Stress Testing: What EU Banks Must Show
How the EBA's EU-wide stress test evaluates credit risk resilience, what the adverse scenario tests, and where bank models most often fall short.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
VaR vs Expected Shortfall: Market Risk Measurement
Why Basel shifted market risk capital from value-at-risk to expected shortfall, and what the change means for tail risk management in practice.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 7 min read
IRB Model Validation: Avoiding Supervisory Challenge
What supervisors scrutinise most in internal ratings-based model validation, and how banks keep IRB models compliant under ongoing review.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 8 min read
Commercial Real Estate Concentration Risk in Bank Lending
Why commercial real estate concentration remains a top supervisory concern for banks, and how lenders are rebuilding exposure limits and stress tests.
By Jonas Adam Mohamed Osman · 7 min read