Actuarial research library
General Insurance Actuarial Modelling: Reserve Risk, Premium Risk and AI
Twenty practitioner notes on reserve risk, premium risk, stochastic reserving, IFRS 17, Solvency II and AI in general insurance actuarial modelling. Written by Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour.
Reserve Risk
Reserve Risk Modelling in General Insurance: A Practical Framework
How general insurers quantify reserve risk, choose between deterministic and stochastic methods, and evidence the result to boards and supervisors.
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour · 9 min read
One-Year Versus Ultimate Reserve Risk: Which Horizon Answers Which Question
Why the one-year claims development result and the ultimate view of reserve risk give different answers, and how to use each correctly.
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour · 8 min read
Claims Inflation and Reserving: What Has Changed Going Into 2026
How persistent claims inflation, social inflation and repair-cost dynamics should be reflected in general insurance reserves and reserve risk.
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour · 9 min read
Premium Risk
Premium Risk Modelling: Quantifying the Cost of the Next Underwriting Year
A practical guide to modelling premium risk for general insurers, covering loss ratio volatility, large losses, catastrophe loading, expense risk and cycle effects.
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour · 9 min read
Loss Ratio Distribution Modelling for the Business Plan
Constructing a credible loss ratio distribution for the planning year, including rate adequacy, mix change and parameter uncertainty.
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour · 8 min read
Reserving Methods
Bootstrap and Over-Dispersed Poisson Models for Reserve Variability
How the ODP bootstrap actually works, where it breaks down, and the diagnostics that should accompany every bootstrap reserve distribution.
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour · 9 min read
The Mack Model in Modern Reserving Practice
What Mack's distribution-free chain ladder does and does not tell you about reserve uncertainty, and how to use it alongside other estimators.
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour · 8 min read
Choosing a Stochastic Reserving Method: A Decision Guide
A structured comparison of bootstrap, Mack, Bayesian and individual-claim approaches, with the data conditions each one requires.
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour · 9 min read
IBNR Estimation in Modern Practice: Beyond the Triangle
How IBNR estimation is changing as insurers gain access to granular claims data, exposure information and near-real-time reporting.
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour · 8 min read
Granular Claims Data in Reserving: What It Adds and What It Costs
A realistic assessment of moving from triangles to claim-level data, including data quality, lineage, reproducibility and team capability.
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour · 8 min read
Pricing & Underwriting
Large Loss and Catastrophe Loadings in Technical Pricing
How to set large-loss and catastrophe loadings that are stable, defensible and consistent between pricing, reserving and capital.
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour · 8 min read
GLMs Versus Gradient Boosting in General Insurance Pricing
How pricing teams are combining generalised linear models with gradient boosting, and the governance that makes the hybrid defensible.
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour · 8 min read
Capital & Regulation
How Reinsurance Reshapes Reserve and Premium Risk
Modelling the net position properly: non-proportional structures, reinstatements, counterparty risk and the timing of recoveries.
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour · 8 min read
The IFRS 17 Risk Adjustment for General Insurers: Methods and Disclosure
Setting, calibrating and disclosing the risk adjustment for non-financial risk under IFRS 17, and reconciling it with Solvency II.
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour · 9 min read
Solvency II Non-Life Underwriting Risk: Standard Formula, USPs and Internal Models
When the standard formula is adequate for non-life underwriting risk, when undertaking-specific parameters help, and what an internal model has to prove.
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour · 9 min read
AI & Machine Learning
Machine Learning for Individual Claims Reserving: State of Practice
Where claim-level machine learning models genuinely improve reserving accuracy, and the validation and governance they require.
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour · 9 min read
Generative AI in the Actuarial Workflow: Useful, Governed, Auditable
Where large language models are adding value in actuarial teams in 2026, and the controls required before output reaches a reserving committee.
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour · 9 min read
AI Model Risk Management for Insurers: Turning Principles Into Controls
How insurers are extending existing model risk frameworks to cover AI and machine learning, under the EU AI Act, EIOPA expectations and the NIST framework.
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour · 9 min read
Validation & Governance
Validating Reserving Models: What Independent Review Should Actually Test
A concrete validation programme for reserving and reserve-risk models, covering data, method, assumptions, implementation and use.
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour · 9 min read
Reporting Reserve Uncertainty to a Board: Making the Range Useful
How to present reserve ranges, judgement and actual-versus-expected movements so that non-specialist directors can challenge them effectively.
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour · 8 min read