Scenario Analysis8 min read

NGFS Short-Term Climate Scenarios and Near-Term Risk

By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour

Published 12 September 2026

How the 2025 NGFS short-term climate scenarios complement long-term pathways for credit, market, liquidity and business-planning decisions.

Executive answer

The NGFS short-term scenarios address a long-standing weakness in climate analysis: many business decisions operate over quarters and years, while traditional pathways extend for decades. Near-term scenarios make policy surprises, market repricing and macro-financial transmission easier to connect with planning cycles.

What changed

Short-horizon work should complement rather than replace long-term analysis. Transition investment, asset lives and physical hazards can extend far beyond a normal planning window. The two views answer different questions and should not be collapsed into one headline loss.

Implications for financial institutions

Risk teams can use short-term scenarios to test earnings, credit migration, collateral, liquidity and sector concentration. Governance should state whether the exercise is exploratory, a stress test or an input to limits, and how management actions are treated.

Relevance to Quantica Climate Risk Model

The public case for Quantica Climate Risk Model is the ability to organise near- and long-term evidence into a controlled decision process. No proprietary scenario translation or shock design is disclosed here.

Conclusion

For ngfs short-term climate scenarios and near-term risk, the practical priority is disciplined interpretation: connect authoritative evidence to a defined decision, preserve the limitations, and ensure accountable review. This is the approach advocated by Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour across climate-risk governance and model assurance.

Primary sources

NGFS Short-term Climate Scenarios — Technical Documentation

NGFS short-term scenariosnear-term riskscenario analysis