NatCat & Hazard Modelling8 min read

Natural Catastrophe Losses in 2025: Modelling Lessons

By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour

Published 12 September 2026

What 2025 insured catastrophe losses and the growing importance of secondary perils mean for portfolio risk, pricing and capital.

Executive answer

Swiss Re’s review of 2025 natural catastrophes reports another year of very high insured losses and highlights wildfire and severe storm risk. The pattern reinforces that so-called secondary perils can create material recurring loss, especially where exposure growth and urban development increase values at risk.

What changed

A loss year should not be used mechanically to recalibrate expectations. Claims development, inflation, exposure change, event clustering and insurance conditions all affect interpretation. The signal is strongest when combined with a longer evidence base.

Implications for financial institutions

Insurers and banks should review geographic accumulation, protection, collateral and business interruption. Risk appetite should explain how frequent events and extreme tail outcomes are treated together.

Relevance to Quantica Climate Risk Model

Quantica Climate Risk Model is positioned around governed portfolio insight and decision support. No proprietary event generation, vulnerability treatment or pricing logic is disclosed.

Conclusion

For natural catastrophe losses in 2025: modelling lessons, the practical priority is disciplined interpretation: connect authoritative evidence to a defined decision, preserve the limitations, and ensure accountable review. This is the approach advocated by Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour across climate-risk governance and model assurance.

Primary sources

natural catastrophe lossessecondary perilsinsurance